Safe Withdrawal Rate Calculator

Calculate safe withdrawal rate and portfolio sustainability. See historical success rates at different SWR levels.

By Konstantin Iakovlev · Updated April 2026 · Source: IRS

$
$
Time Horizon

Your Withdrawal Rate

4.00%

Historical Success Rate

95%

Monthly Income at 4.00%

$3,333.33

Annual Income at Various Withdrawal Rates (30-Year Horizon)

3.0% SWR — 100% success$30,000.00/yr ($2,500.00/mo)
3.5% SWR — 99% success$35,000.00/yr ($2,916.67/mo)
4.0% SWR — 95% success$40,000.00/yr ($3,333.33/mo)
4.5% SWR — 87% success$45,000.00/yr ($3,750.00/mo)
5.0% SWR — 78% success$50,000.00/yr ($4,166.67/mo)

Portfolio After 30 Years (Scenario Analysis)

Optimistic (75th pctl)$7,324,669.79
Expected (median)$1,531,510.78
Conservative (25th pctl)$156,183.95
Poor (10th pctl)Depleted

About Safe Withdrawal Rates

  • The 4% rule suggests withdrawing 4% in year one, then adjusting for inflation.
  • Historical success rates are based on a 60/40 stock/bond portfolio.
  • 3.5% or lower is generally considered very safe for 30+ year horizons.
  • Consider lowering your rate if you have a longer time horizon or want more security.

Use the Safe Withdrawal Rate Calculator above to calculate your results. Enter your values and see instant results — all calculations run in your browser.

Disclaimer: This calculator is for informational purposes only and does not constitute tax, financial, or legal advice. Results are estimates based on the information you provide and current rates. Always consult a qualified tax professional or financial advisor for advice specific to your situation.

How It Works

The central retirement question is how much you can pull from your portfolio each year and still not outlive your money. That figure, your safe withdrawal rate, or SWR, anchors a sound retirement plan, all the more so given 2026 projections that put inflation moderating toward 2.5% and long-run average market returns in the 6-7% range. Get it right and your savings stretch across the whole retirement.

Behind the scenes, the tool runs a historical simulation, the approach sometimes called 'Monte Carlo' or 'backtesting', to gauge whether a portfolio holds up. It runs thousands of historical market periods, adjusting for inflation with historical CPI data and current 2026 projections, and reports the success rate of different withdrawal rates over the retirement horizon you choose. It puts the well-known '4% rule' to the test and lets you experiment with variations to see how each SWR fared across past economic climates.

One caveat worth holding onto: what markets did before is no promise of what they'll do next, and conditions can turn without warning. Inflation quietly erodes purchasing power over a long retirement, and while the calculator already factors that in, it's worth grasping why it matters. Leave yourself a buffer for surprise expenses and downturns, and stay ready to adjust your withdrawals if your circumstances or the markets move sharply.

Example: Retiring in 2026 with a $1,000,000 portfolio

  1. 1 Input a starting portfolio of $1,000,000, a retirement duration of 30 years, and an initial withdrawal rate of 4%.
  2. 2 The calculator runs simulations against historical market data (adjusted for 2026 inflation and return expectations). It determines how often a $40,000 annual withdrawal (adjusted for inflation each year) would have lasted for 30 years.
  3. 3 The result shows a historical success rate of approximately 95% for a 4% withdrawal rate over a 30-year period, based on historical market data and 2026 economic assumptions.
  4. 4 This means that in 95 out of 100 historical scenarios, a portfolio of $1,000,000 with a 4% inflation-adjusted withdrawal would have lasted 30 years. This provides a strong indication of sustainability, but remember to consider your personal risk tolerance and future financial flexibility.

Source: IRS · Last updated: April 2026

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the 4% rule for retirement?
The 4% rule says you can withdraw 4% of your portfolio in year one, then adjust for inflation each year, with a high probability of not running out of money over 30 years. A $1 million portfolio supports $40,000/year in withdrawals.
Is the 4% rule still valid in 2026?
Many financial planners now recommend 3.5-3.8% for early retirees or conservative planning due to lower expected returns. Traditional retirees with Social Security and a 30-year horizon may still be fine at 4%.
What safe withdrawal rate should I use for early retirement?
For retirements lasting 40-50 years, a 3-3.5% withdrawal rate provides better long-term safety. A $1 million portfolio at 3.5% supports $35,000/year with a 95%+ historical success rate over 50 years.

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