Safe Withdrawal Rate Calculator

Calculate safe withdrawal rate and portfolio sustainability. See historical success rates at different SWR levels.
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Time Horizon

Your Withdrawal Rate

4.00%

Historical Success Rate

95%

Monthly Income at 4.00%

$3,333.33

Annual Income at Various Withdrawal Rates (30-Year Horizon)

3.0% SWR — 100% success$30,000.00/yr ($2,500.00/mo)
3.5% SWR — 99% success$35,000.00/yr ($2,916.67/mo)
4.0% SWR — 95% success$40,000.00/yr ($3,333.33/mo)
4.5% SWR — 87% success$45,000.00/yr ($3,750.00/mo)
5.0% SWR — 78% success$50,000.00/yr ($4,166.67/mo)

Portfolio After 30 Years (Scenario Analysis)

Optimistic (75th pctl)$7,324,669.79
Expected (median)$1,531,510.78
Conservative (25th pctl)$156,183.95
Poor (10th pctl)Depleted

About Safe Withdrawal Rates

  • The 4% rule suggests withdrawing 4% in year one, then adjusting for inflation.
  • Historical success rates are based on a 60/40 stock/bond portfolio.
  • 3.5% or lower is generally considered very safe for 30+ year horizons.
  • Consider lowering your rate if you have a longer time horizon or want more security.

Use the Safe Withdrawal Rate Calculator above to calculate your results. Enter your values and see instant results — all calculations run in your browser.

Disclaimer: This calculator is for informational purposes only and does not constitute tax, financial, or legal advice. Results are estimates based on the information you provide and current rates. Always consult a qualified tax professional or financial advisor for advice specific to your situation.

How It Works

Our Safe Withdrawal Rate Calculator helps you determine how much you can sustainably withdraw from your retirement portfolio each year without running out of money. This calculator is crucial for retirement planning, especially given current economic projections for 2026, where inflation is expected to moderate to around 2.5% and long-term average market returns are anticipated to be in the 6-7% range. Understanding your safe withdrawal rate (SWR) ensures your savings last throughout your retirement, providing financial peace of mind.

This calculator utilizes a historical simulation methodology, often referred to as the 'Monte Carlo' or 'backtesting' approach, to assess portfolio sustainability. We analyze thousands of historical market periods, adjusting for inflation using historical CPI data and current 2026 projections, to determine the success rate of various withdrawal rates over a user-defined retirement horizon. The calculator specifically tests the widely recognized '4% rule' and allows you to explore variations, showing how different SWRs performed in past economic climates.

When using this calculator, remember that historical performance is not a guarantee of future results, and market conditions can change unexpectedly. A common mistake is to ignore the impact of inflation on purchasing power over a long retirement; our calculator accounts for this, but it's important to understand its implications. Also, consider incorporating a buffer for unexpected expenses or market downturns, and be prepared to adjust your withdrawal strategy if your financial situation or market conditions shift significantly.

Example: Retiring in 2026 with a $1,000,000 portfolio

  1. 1 Input a starting portfolio of $1,000,000, a retirement duration of 30 years, and an initial withdrawal rate of 4%.
  2. 2 The calculator runs simulations against historical market data (adjusted for 2026 inflation and return expectations). It determines how often a $40,000 annual withdrawal (adjusted for inflation each year) would have lasted for 30 years.
  3. 3 The result shows a historical success rate of approximately 95% for a 4% withdrawal rate over a 30-year period, based on historical market data and 2026 economic assumptions.
  4. 4 This means that in 95 out of 100 historical scenarios, a portfolio of $1,000,000 with a 4% inflation-adjusted withdrawal would have lasted 30 years. This provides a strong indication of sustainability, but remember to consider your personal risk tolerance and future financial flexibility.

Source: IRS · Last updated: April 2026

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the 4% rule for retirement?
The 4% rule says you can withdraw 4% of your portfolio in year one, then adjust for inflation each year, with a high probability of not running out of money over 30 years. A $1 million portfolio supports $40,000/year in withdrawals.
Is the 4% rule still valid in 2026?
Many financial planners now recommend 3.5-3.8% for early retirees or conservative planning due to lower expected returns. Traditional retirees with Social Security and a 30-year horizon may still be fine at 4%.
What safe withdrawal rate should I use for early retirement?
For retirements lasting 40-50 years, a 3-3.5% withdrawal rate provides better long-term safety. A $1 million portfolio at 3.5% supports $35,000/year with a 95%+ historical success rate over 50 years.

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